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SAVi: nature-based solutions in Kigali
Sustainable Asset Valuation · January 2026
IISD’s assessment compares current and restored land use in Kigali and estimates the costs and benefits of restoration over 2025–2050. It values effects on flooding, health, carbon and employment to inform investment decisions. These are modelled estimates, not measurements of completed project outcomes.
Full report summary
Kigali's steep terrain, rapid urbanisation and degraded wetlands leave the city acutely exposed to flash flooding, landslides and soil erosion, an exposure climate change is sharpening. Using IISD's Sustainable Asset Valuation method, the report builds an integrated cost benefit analysis of the SUNCASA package of afforestation, reforestation, agroforestry, riparian buffer development and urban tree planting across roughly 2,500 hectares, valuing avoided flood damage, avoided health costs from floods, water pollution and heat, carbon sequestration and employment income from 2025 to 2050. It finds the package economically viable in every scenario tested, with a discounted benefit to cost ratio of 2.09 and a seven year payback, and closes by urging policy makers to embed these wider values, and gender disaggregated data, in how nature based solution investment decisions are made.
What benefits does the assessment estimate?
These are modelled monetary values for Kigali over 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. Costs and benefits use the same scale, in millions of Rwandan francs.
RWF million · 2025–2050 · 10% discount rate
View data table
| Measure | Value | Unit | Basis | Publication date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implementation cost | 3,579 | RWF million | Cost | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Operation and maintenance | 11,984 | RWF million | Cost | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Avoided flood damage | 17,311 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Avoided health cost, floods and landslides | 3 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Avoided health cost, water pollution | 5,349 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Avoided health cost, heat | 2,727 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Added employment creation | 2,875 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
| Carbon sequestration | 4,337 | RWF million | Benefit | 2026-01-20 | Read source Modelled cumulative value, 2025–2050, discounted at 10%. |
Benefits less costs: 32,602 − 15,563 = 17,039 million RWF.
The model estimates 2.09 francs of benefits for each franc of cost.
The modelled time until cumulative benefits cover cumulative costs.
Separate USD publication
USD figures are quoted from a separate April 2026 publication. They are not converted from the RWF chart.
Avoided flood-related infrastructure damage by 2050: 12 USD million · 2026-04-10 · Read source
Health savings: 5.57 USD million · 2026-04-10 · Read source
Full publication details
A Sustainable Asset Valuation Assessment of Nature-Based Solutions in Kigali, Rwanda
- Reviewed by
- Janina Schnick, Liesbeth Casier, Andrea M. Bassi, Obadiah Mungai
- Spatial analysis by
- Marco Guzzetti
- Pages
- 38 · cover, front matter ii to xi, body 1 to 26
- ISBN / DOI
- None printed
Contents, figures and tables
Contents
- 1.0 Introduction · Page 1
- 2.0 SAVi · Page 3
- 2.1 The Importance of Systems Thinking · Page 3
- 2.2 Causal Loop Diagram · Page 4
- 2.3 Spatially Explicit Analysis · Page 7
- 3.0 Integrated CBA · Page 11
- 3.1 Methodology · Page 11
- 3.2 Scenarios · Page 12
- 4.0 Results · Page 13
- 5.0 Conclusions · Page 18
- References · Page 20
- Appendix. Key Data Sources · Page 22
Figures
- Figure ES1 · Economic, social, and environmental benefits of NbS interventions in Kigali · Page vii
- Figure 1 · Steps in the SAVi model · Page 3
- Figure 2 · CLD representing the dynamics of the NbS interventions in Kigali · Page 5
- Figure 3 · Location of the interventions · Page 8
- Figure 4 · Carbon storage in tons: Current and Restored LULC scenarios · Page 9
- Figure 5 · Runoff retention in m3: Current and Restored LULC scenarios · Page 9
- Figure 6 · Added benefits and avoided costs of the NbS interventions in Kigali · Page 14
- Figure 7 · Economic, social, and environmental benefits of the NbS interventions in Kigali · Page 15
- Figure 8 · Monetary values of the NbS scenario (discounted at 10%, cumulative 2025 to 2050) · Page 16
Tables
- Table ES1 · Integrated CBA of SUNCASA-implemented NbS interventions in Kigali (discounted at 10%) · Page vi
- Table 1 · Total ha of interventions · Page 7
- Table 2 · Spatial analysis results summary · Page 9
- Table 3 · Total number of buildings and metres of roads in Kigali and the number that are at risk of flooding · Page 10
- Table 4 · Integrated CBA of SUNCASA-implemented NbS interventions in Kigali (discounted at 10%) · Page 13
- Table 5 · Net benefits and BCRs of the NbS interventions in Kigali across scenarios (RWF million) · Page 17
- Table A1 · Data sources used in the Sustainable Asset Valuation assessment of the NbS interventions in Kigali · Page 22
Boxes
- Box 1 · Reading a CLD · Page 4
Source cited by hub entries
Entries that cite this report in their public source links.